Consequence Map

Purpose

A Consequence Map helps teams think beyond immediate outcomes by tracing first-, second-, and third-order consequences of a decision. By visualising the ripple effects, the group identifies unintended consequences, feedback loops, and hidden risks before committing to a course of action.

At a glance

How to run

1. State the decision (3 min): Write the decision or action in the centre of the board.
2. First-order consequences (8 min): Brainstorm the immediate, direct effects. Place them around the centre and draw arrows from the decision.
3. Second-order consequences (10 min): For each first-order consequence, ask "And then what?" Place these further out and connect with arrows.
4. Third-order consequences (8 min): Repeat once more. Look for surprises and feedback loops.
5. Evaluate (6 min): Colour-code consequences as positive (green), negative (red), or uncertain (yellow). Discuss the most concerning negative consequences and whether they change the decision.

Materials needed

• Large whiteboard or paper (the map expands quickly)
• Sticky notes and markers
• Three colours for coding (green, red, yellow)

Pitfalls & common mistakes

• Stopping at first order: The real insights are in second- and third-order effects.
• Too many branches: Focus on the most significant consequences at each level; not every branch needs to go three levels deep.
• Analysis paralysis: The goal is awareness, not prediction of every outcome.
• Ignoring positive consequences: Track upsides too, not only risks.

Inclusion & accessibility

• Use large, clear arrows and labels for readability.
• Allow participants to add consequences via sticky notes placed by the facilitator.
• In remote settings, use a zoomable digital canvas.

Variations

• Futures Wheel: A related technique by Jerome Glenn with a more structured radial layout.
• So-What Chain: A simplified linear version asking "So what?" repeatedly.
• Stakeholder Consequence Map: Separate branches per affected stakeholder group.

When NOT to use this

• For reversible, low-stakes decisions — over-analysis adds no value.
• When the team needs to move fast and the decision is time-sensitive.
• When consequences are already well-documented from prior analysis.

Source & further reading

• Jerome Glenn, "Futures Wheel" (1971)
• Donella Meadows, *Thinking in Systems* (2008)
• Gamestorming: Consequence Map