Critical Uncertainties

Purpose

Critical Uncertainties helps groups prepare for an unpredictable future by identifying the two most critical and uncertain forces, then exploring four scenarios based on their extreme combinations. Rather than predicting the future, it builds adaptive capacity by revealing what strategies are robust across scenarios. Use it for strategic planning when the environment is volatile and conventional forecasting is unreliable.

At a glance

• Group size: 10–40 people
• Duration: 60 minutes
• Difficulty: Advanced
• Facilitation style: Structured
• Setting: Indoor / Remote-friendly

How to run

1. Identify uncertainties (15 min): In small groups, brainstorm the external forces that could most impact the group's future. Prioritise for impact and unpredictability.
2. Select the top two (5 min): Converge on the two most critical and uncertain forces.
3. Build the matrix (5 min): Create a 2x2 with each force on one axis, extremes at each end. This produces four scenario quadrants.
4. Develop scenarios (20 min): Small groups take one quadrant each and develop a scenario narrative: what does this world look like? How does it affect us?
5. Identify robust strategies (15 min): Across all four scenarios, find strategies that work in at least 3 of 4 worlds. These are your most adaptive moves.

Materials needed

• Large 2x2 matrix on flip chart or wall
• Sticky notes and markers
• Scenario narrative templates
• Timer

Pitfalls & common mistakes

• Choosing forces that are uncertain but not critical, or critical but not uncertain — both dimensions must be high.
• Making scenarios too comfortable ("everything works out") — push for genuine discomfort in at least two quadrants.
• Treating the exercise as prediction — the point is preparedness, not forecasting.

Inclusion & accessibility

• The small-group scenario development ensures all voices shape the narratives.
• Use storytelling techniques to make scenarios vivid and engaging for diverse thinking styles.
• For remote: use breakout rooms for scenario development with a shared visual template.

Variations

• Critical Uncertainties + Ecocycle: After scenarios, use Ecocycle to decide what to start, stop, or sustain in each world.
• Three horizons overlay: Map scenarios against the Three Horizons framework for temporal depth.
• Wind-tunnelling: Take an existing strategy and test it against all four scenarios.

When NOT to use this

Avoid Critical Uncertainties when the group needs to make an immediate decision — the method builds long-term adaptive capacity, not short-term answers. Also not suitable when there is a single dominant uncertainty (use a simpler scenario approach).

Source & further reading

Developed by Henri Lipmanowicz and Keith McCandless as part of Liberating Structures, drawing on the scenario planning tradition of Shell/GBN (Pierre Wack, Peter Schwartz). See liberatingstructures.com.