Three Horizons Framework

Purpose

The Three Horizons Framework, developed by Bill Sharpe and colleagues at the International Futures Forum, provides a simple, powerful map for understanding how systems transform over time. Horizon 1 (H1) is the current dominant system — what works now but is declining. Horizon 3 (H3) is the emerging future — visions and innovations that do not yet dominate. Horizon 2 (H2) is the messy middle — transition activities, experiments, and negotiations between the old and the new.

At a glance

How to run

1. Introduce the framework (5 min). Draw three curves on a time axis: H1 declining from left, H3 rising from right, H2 as a hump in the middle. Explain each horizon.
2. Map H1 (15 min). What is the current dominant system? What is working but showing signs of strain? What business-as-usual patterns are losing relevance? Sticky notes on the H1 curve.
3. Map H3 (15 min). What emerging futures do we see? What pockets of innovation, new values, or paradigm shifts are visible at the margins? What would the ideal future look like? Sticky notes on the H3 curve.
4. Map H2 (15 min). What transition activities are already happening? What experiments, pilots, or hybrid approaches bridge old and new? What battles are being fought between H1 incumbents and H3 innovators? Sticky notes on the H2 curve.
5. Strategic dialogue (10 min). Discuss: Where should we invest energy? How do we responsibly wind down H1 while nurturing H3? What H2 experiments should we run? Who are the allies in each horizon?

Materials needed

• Large paper or whiteboard with the three-horizons template drawn
• Sticky notes in three colors (one per horizon)
• Markers
• Timer

Pitfalls & common mistakes

• Demonizing H1. The current system provides stability and livelihoods. Acknowledge its value while noting its limits.
• Romanticizing H3. Not every innovation is the future. H3 needs critical testing too.
• Ignoring H2. The transition zone is where the real strategic work happens. Most groups skip it.
• Static map. The three horizons are dynamic — what is H3 today may become H1 tomorrow. Revisit regularly.

Inclusion & accessibility

• Include diverse voices — people in different organizational positions experience the horizons differently.
• H3 voices are often marginalized innovators or frontline workers. Actively seek them out.
• Use the visual map to make the full picture accessible.
• Provide the framework in advance for participants who need preparation time.

Variations

• Three Horizons + scenario planning: Use the framework to organize scenarios into horizon timelines.
• Personal Three Horizons: Apply to individual career transformation.
• Organizational Three Horizons: Map specific business units or products across the horizons.

When NOT to use this

• When the organization is in operational firefighting mode and needs tactical responses, not strategic futures.
• When the leadership is committed to H1 and any discussion of H3 would be punished.
• When the issue does not involve systemic transformation.

Source & further reading

• Sharpe, B. (2013). *Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope*. Triarchy Press.
• Curry, A. & Hodgson, A. (2008). "Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy." *Journal of Futures Studies*, 13(1).
• International Futures Forum. https://www.internationalfuturesforum.com